This book discusses what is often called the “Great Leap Famine”, which occurred in China during the years from 1959 to 1961. Scholarly consensus suggests that 30 million Chinese perished. Yang Songlin's book provides an evidence-based, systematic and substantial rebuff, concluding that a much smaller number of deaths can be verified. This book is of interest to scholars of China and Chinese development and politics, economists, and demographers.

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Yang, Songlin; Xie, Baohui

Songlin Yang; Baohui Xie

Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd Fka Springer Science + Business Media Singapore Pte Ltd

Springer Nature, Singapore, 2021

Gateway East, Singapore, 2021

1st ed. 2021, Singapore, 2021

Singapore, Singapore

2, 20210525

lg3063700

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Acknowledgements
In Lieu of an Introduction—Debates on the Great Leap Forward: the Significance of a Reassessment
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Part I Problems Surrounding the Death Counts in the Great Leap Forward
1 Introduction: Someone Must Finally Speak the Truth
References
Part II Excess Mortality During the Three Years of Difficulty
2 Current Research and Dilemmas
Studies on the Death Toll of the Three Years of Difficulties
Terminology, Research Scope, and Methods
Terminology
Research Scope
Research Methods
What Is “Official Statistics”?
Research Dilemmas
Discrepancies in Official Data
Death Data that Cannot Be Trusted
Confusion with the Birth Data
References
3 How to Resolve the Statistical Dilemma
How Population Data Was Collected Before 1982
Implications of Under-Registration and Late Registration
Under-Registration and Late Registration of Births
Under-Registration and Late Registration of Deaths
Under-Registration and Late Registration of Emigration and Immigration
Demographic Limitations of Birth and Death Data
Have the Official Statistics Been Manipulated?
Cao Shuji’s Assertion: Data Were Manipulated by the Government
Yang Jisheng: Adjusting the Data on Purpose
References
4 Causes of Two Sets of Population Growth Data and Data Adjustment
Discrepancies Between Registered Population Growth and Natural Population Growth
Under-Registration and Late Registration of Migration Are the Cause of Confusion in Population Data
Sun Jingxian’s Estimation Is Consistent with the Historical Facts
The Possibility of Under-Registration of Migration
Confusion Accompanying Rapid Industrialization
How Has the Registered Population Growth Deviated from Reality?
The Period from 1956 to 1959
The Year 1960
The Period from 1961 to 1964
The Period 1965–1981
References
5 Bewildering Birth Data: Origin and Adjustment
Birth Data: Statistical Patterns and Methods
Why and How the Birth Statistics for the Period from 1960 to 1962 Have Deviated from Reality
Applying the Figures for the Under-Registration and Late Registration of Births to Make a More Accurate Estimate of the Population in the Period 1960–1962
References
6 Astounding Death Figures, Cause and Adjustments
Doubts Surrounding the Death Toll
Analysis of the Under-Registration of Death in Two Different Periods
Motives and Possibilities of Intentional Under-Registration of Death
Intentional Under-Registration of Death Before 1964
An Estimate of Intentional Under-Registration of Death in 1953–61
Intentional Under-Registration of Death in 1965–80
Correction to Intentional Under-Registration of Death
Principles of Correcting Intentional Under-Registration of Death
Year-Specific Retrospective Registration of Death
Can Demographic Statistics Be Estimated?
References
7 There Were 2.6–4 Million Deaths in the Three Years of Difficulty in Excess of Normal Years
What Are “Normal Years”?
The Years of 1962 and 1963 Were Not “Normal”
An Analysis of Excess Deaths for the Period 1959–1961
An Estimate of Excess Deaths Using the First Set of Estimated Death Data
An Estimate of Excess Deaths Using the Second Set of Estimated Death Data
Reference
Part III A Critical Review of Mainstream Literature and Findings
8 Institutional Constraints on China’s Population Statistics
Research Methodologies of Some Western Demographers
Whose Births Were Unregistered According to the Marriage and Fertility Survey?
Low Credibility of the Data Collected in the Retrospective Marriage and Fertility Survey
References
9 Problems in the Research of a Number of Chinese Scholars
Ding Shu Has Been Working on the “Abnormal Decrease of Year-End Population”
Cao Shuji’s Calculation Method Is Problematic Too
Cao Shuji Is Not Familiar with the Principles of Statistical Sampling
Jin Hui’s Dilemmas
Wang Weizhi’s Research
References
10 Other Research and Findings
Jiang Zhenghua’s Research
Frank Dikötter’s Research
Can an “Abnormal Reduction in Population” Be Considered “Hunger Deaths”?
Inside Information is not Necessarily Reliable
References
11 Tombstone: A Most Influential Work
Yang Jisheng Did Not Base His Argument of 36 Million Premature Deaths on Calculation
Yang’s Calculation Fails to Adhere to the Principle of Consistency
Other Problems in Yang Jisheng’s Calculation
Why Did Yang Jisheng Choose Not to Use the MPS Data?
References
Part IV The Main Causes of the Disaster
12 The Extent of Natural Disasters
Was This an Entirely Man-Made Calamity?
There Were, Indeed, Natural Disasters
References
13 An Analysis on Policy Factors
The Excess Deaths Were Mainly Caused by Policy Failure
Did the Great Leap Forward Cause the Great Famine?
Unrealistic Targets, the “Wind of Exaggeration” and Excessive Requisitioning
How Did “Man-Made Calamities” Cause Excess Deaths?
The Communist Wind and Communal Canteens Were the Primary Factors
The Communist Wind and Transition in Poverty
The Food Supply System and Public Canteens
People Really Starved to Death
How China Has Responded to Disasters in History and What We Can Learn from It
References
14 Are Socialism, Planned Economy, and Collectivism Responsible for the Calamities?
Shortages in a Planned Economy
The Market Economy Cannot Avert Hunger-Related Deaths
Justine Yifu Lin’s Hypothesis Is Not Supported by Empirical Evidence
References
15 Concluding Remarks
References
Index

This book discusses about what is often called the "Great Leap Famine", which occurred in China during the years from 1959 to 1961. Scholarly consensus suggests that 30 million Chinese perished. Yang Songlin's book provides an evidence-based, systematic and substantial rebuff, concluding on a much smaller number of deaths. This book is of interest to scholars of China and Chinese development and politics, economists, and demographers. Yang Songlin has worked as a senior researcher at the Provincial Development Research Center of Henan and the Institute of Chinese Economic Systemic Reform in Beijing. His focus of research is on political economy and social history. He has published many papers, and his books include An Economic History of Henan (Kaifeng: Henan People's Publisher, 1988), West China: New Direction of Development and Reform (Beijing: Current Affairs Press, 1988); Economic Development at the County Level (Kaifeng: Henan People's Publisher, 1992); Dao and Tianxia: Debates on Issues concerning Contemporary World (Hong Kong: Dafeng Publisher, 2008); and The Truth Must be Told (Haikou: Nanhai Publishing Co., 2013)

2021-07-25