**Now updated with new measurement methods and new examples, __How to Measure Anything__ shows managers how to inform themselves in order to make less risky, more profitable business decisions**This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business, government agency or other organization that, until now, you may have considered "immeasurable," including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI.
* Adds new measurement methods, showing how they can be applied to a variety of areas such as risk management and customer satisfaction
* Simplifies overall content while still making the more technical applications available to those readers who want to dig deeper
* Continues to boldly assert that any perception of "immeasurability" is based on certain popular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methods
* Shows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, and sets out to correct those ideas
* Offers practical methods for measuring a variety of "intangibles"
* Provides an online database (www.howtomeasureanything.com) of downloadable, practical examples worked out in detailed spreadsheets
Written by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard—creator of Applied Information Economics—__How to Measure Anything, Third Edition__ illustrates how the author has used his approach across various industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven methods.

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How to Measure Anything : Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (3rd Edition)

Hubbard, Douglas W.(Author)

EBL-Schweitzer, Third edition (Online-ausg.), Hoboken, New Jersey, 2014

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (trade), Hoboken, New Jersey, 2014

United States, United States of America

Mar 17, 2014

0

lg1307484

producers:
Adobe PDF Library 9.0

{"edition":"3","isbns":["1118539273","9781118539279"],"last_page":432,"publisher":"Wiley"}

Source title: How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business

How to Measure Anything 3
Contents 9
Preface to the Third Edition 15
About the Companion Website 19
Acknowledgments 21
About the Author 23
Part I The Measurement Solution Exists 25
Chapter 1 The Challenge of Intangibles 27
The Alleged Intangibles 28
Yes, I Mean Anything 29
The Proposal: It’s about Decisions 31
A “Power Tools” Approach to Measurement 34
A Guide to the Rest of the Book 35
Chapter 2 An Intuitive Measurement Habit: Eratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily 39
How an Ancient Greek Measured the Size of Earth 40
Estimating: Be Like Fermi 41
Experiments: Not Just for AduLts 44
Notes on What to Learn from Eratosthenes, Enrico, and Emily 49
Notes 51
Chapter 3 The Illusion of Intangibles: Why Immeasurables Aren’t 53
The Concept of Measurement 54
A Definition of Measurement: An “Information Theory” Version 55
A Variety of Measurement Scales 56
Bayesian Measurement: A Pragmatic Concept for Decisions 58
The Object of Measurement 61
The Methods of Measurement 64
The Power of Small Samples: The Rule of Five 66
Even Smaller Samples: The Urn of Mystery 68
Our Small-Sample Intuition versus Math 70
Economic Objections to Measurement 72
The Broader Objection to the Usefulness of “Statistics” 76
Ethical Objections to Measurement 79
Reversing Old Assumptions 82
It’s Been Measured Before 83
You Have Far More Data than You Think 84
You Need Far Less Data than You Think 86
Useful, New Observations Are More Accessible than You Think 88
Notes 89
Part II Before You Measure 93
Chapter 4 Clarifying the Measurement Problem 95
Toward a Universal Approach to Measurement 97
The Unexpected Challenge of Defining a Decision 98
Decision-Oriented Measurements: For Scientists, Too 100
How to Get to a Real Decision 101
Requirements for a Decision 102
Potential Forms of a Decision 103
If You Understand it, You Can Model it 104
Getting the Language Right: What “Uncertainty” and “Risk” Really Mean 107
An Example of a Clarified Decision 108
Notes 114
Chapter 5 Calibrated Estimates: How Much Do You Know Now? 117
Calibration Exercise 119
Calibration Trick: Bet Money (or Even Just Pretend To) 125
Further Improvements on Calibration 128
Conceptual Obstacles to Calibration 130
The Effects of Calibration Training 135
Notes 142
Chapter 6 Quantifying Risk through Modeling 147
How Not to Quantify Risk 147
Real Risk Analysis: The Monte Carlo 149
An Example of the Monte Carlo Method and Risk 151
Tools and Other Resources for Monte Carlo Simulations 160
The Risk Paradox and the Need for Better Risk Analysis 164
Notes 167
Chapter 7 Quantifying the Value of Information 169
The Chance of Being Wrong and the Cost of Being Wrong: Expected Opportunity Loss 170
The Value of Information for Ranges 173
Beyond yes/no: Decisions on a Continuum 180
The Imperfect World: The Value of Partial Uncertainty Reduction 183
Perishable Information Values 187
Information Values for Multiple Variables 188
The Epiphany Equation: How the Value of Information Changes Everything 190
Summarizing Uncertainty, RisK, and Information Value: The pre-measurements 195
Notes 196
Part III Measurement Methods 197
Chapter 8 The Transition: From What to Measure to How to Measure 199
Tools of Observation: Introduction to the Instrument of Measurement 201
Decomposition 204
Secondary Research: Assuming You Weren’t the First to Measure It 208
The Basic Methods of Observation: If One Doesn’t Work, Try the Next 210
Measure Just Enough 212
Consider the Error 213
Choose and Design the Instrument 218
Note 220
Chapter 9 Sampling Reality: How Observing Some Things Tells Us about All Things 221
Building an Intuition for Random Sampling: The Jelly Bean Example 223
A Little About Little Samples: A Beer Brewer’s Approach 224
Are Small Samples Really “Statistically Significant”? 228
When Outliers Matter Most 232
The Easiest Sample Statistic Ever 234
A Biased Sample of Sampling Methods 238
Population Proportion Sampling 240
Spot Sampling 242
Serial Sampling 244
Measure to the Threshold 246
. . . And a Lot More 249
Experiment 250
An Example Experiment 252
Now, More about the Meaning of Significance 254
The Significance of Emily Rosa’s Experiment: A Counterfactual Outcome 256
Seeing Relationships in the Data: An Introduction to Regression modeling 259
A Regression Example: TV Ratings 260
Parting Thoughts About Regression 265
Notes 267
Chapter 10 Bayes: Adding to What You Know Now 271
The Basics and Bayes 272
Example: Applying Bayes to Market Tests of New Products 275
One More Time: A Bayesian Look at Emily’s Experiment 277
Demystifying the Urn of Mystery 280
Using Your Natural Bayesian Instinct 281
Instinctive Bayesian Approach 282
Heterogeneous Benchmarking: A “Brand Damage” Application 287
Bayesian Inversion for Ranges: An Overview 291
Example: Percentage of Customers Kept After a Change 291
Bayes for Estimates of Means 297
The Lessons of Bayes 300
Myth 1: Absence of Evidence 301
Myth 2: Correlation Is Not Evidence of Causation 303
Myth 3: Ambiguous Results Tell Us Nothing 304
Myth 4: “This Alone Tells Me Nothing” 305
Notes 306
Part IV Beyond the Basics 309
Chapter 11 Preference and Attitudes: The Softer Side of Measurement 311
Observing Opinions, Values, and the Pursuit of Happiness 311
A Willingness to Pay: Measuring Value via Trade-Offs 316
Putting It All on the Line: Quantifying Risk Tolerance 320
Quantifying Subjective Trade-Offs: Dealing with Multiple Conflicting Preferences 323
Keeping the Big Picture in Mind: Profit Maximization Versus Purely Subjective Trade-Offs 326
Notes 328
Chapter 12 The Ultimate Measurement Instrument: Human Judges 331
Homo Absurdus: The Weird Reasons behind Our Decisions 332
Getting Organized: A Performance Evaluation Example 337
Surprisingly Simple Linear Models 339
How to Standardize Any Evaluation: Rasch Models 340
Removing Human inconsistency: the Lens Model 344
Panacea or Placebo?: Questionable Methods of Measurement 349
Comparing the Methods 357
Example: A Scientist Measures the Performance of a Decision Model 359
Notes 360
Chapter 13 New Measurement Instruments for Management 363
The Twenty-First-Century Tracker: Keeping Tabs with Technology 363
Measuring the World: The Internet as an Instrument 366
Prediction Markets: A Dynamic Aggregation of Opinions 370
Notes 377
Chapter 14 A Universal Measurement Method: Applied Information Economics 381
Bringing the Pieces Together 382
Case: The Value of the System That Monitors Your Drinking Water 386
Phase 0 387
Phase 1 387
Phase 2 388
Phase 3 389
Epilogue 390
Case: Forecasting Fuel for the Marine Corps 391
Phase 0 392
Phase 1 393
Phase 2 394
Phase 3 396
Epilogue 396
Case: Measuring the Value of Acord Standards 397
Phase 0 398
Phase 1 398
Phase 2 400
Phase 3 401
Epilogue 402
Ideas for Getting Started: A Few Final Examples 402
Quality 403
Value of a Process, Department, or Function 403
Innovation 404
Information Availability 405
Flexibility 406
Flexibility with Options Theory 407
Summarizing the Philosophy 408
Notes 409
Appendix: Calibration Tests (and Their Answers) 411
Index 421

Now Updated With New Measurement Methods And New Examples, How To Measure Anything Shows Managers How To Inform Themselves In Order To Make Less Risky, More Profitable Business Decisions This Insightful And Eloquent Book Will Show You How To Measure Those Things In Your Own Business, Government Agency Or Other Organization That, Until Now, You May Have Considered Immeasurable, Including Customer Satisfaction, Organizational Flexibility, Technology Risk, And Technology Roi. Adds New Measurement Methods, Showing How They Can Be Applied To A Variety Of Areas Such As Risk Management And Custom. How To Measure Anything; Contents; Preface To The Third Edition; About The Companion Website; Acknowledgments; About The Author; Part I The Measurement Solution Exists; Chapter 1 The Challenge Of Intangibles; The Alleged Intangibles; Yes, I Mean Anything; The Proposal: It's About Decisions; A Power Tools Approach To Measurement; A Guide To The Rest Of The Book; Chapter 2 An Intuitive Measurement Habit: Eratosthenes, Enrico, And Emily; How An Ancient Greek Measured The Size Of Earth; Estimating: Be Like Fermi; Experiments: Not Just For Adults. Notes On What To Learn From Eratosthenes, Enrico, And Emilynotes; Chapter 3 The Illusion Of Intangibles: Why Immeasurables Aren't; The Concept Of Measurement; A Definition Of Measurement: An Information Theory Version; A Variety Of Measurement Scales; Bayesian Measurement: A Pragmatic Concept For Decisions; The Object Of Measurement; The Methods Of Measurement; The Power Of Small Samples: The Rule Of Five; Even Smaller Samples: The Urn Of Mystery; Our Small-sample Intuition Versus Math; Economic Objections To Measurement; The Broader Objection To The Usefulness Of Statistics. Ethical Objections To Measurementreversing Old Assumptions; It's Been Measured Before; You Have Far More Data Than You Think; You Need Far Less Data Than You Think; Useful, New Observations Are More Accessible Than You Think; Notes; Part Ii Before You Measure; Chapter 4 Clarifying The Measurement Problem; Toward A Universal Approach To Measurement; The Unexpected Challenge Of Defining A Decision; Decision-oriented Measurements: For Scientists, Too; How To Get To A Real Decision; Requirements For A Decision; Potential Forms Of A Decision; If You Understand It, You Can Model It. Getting The Language Right: What Uncertainty And Risk Really Meanan Example Of A Clarified Decision; Notes; Chapter 5 Calibrated Estimates: How Much Do You Know Now?; Calibration Exercise; Calibration Trick: Bet Money (or Even Just Pretend To); Further Improvements On Calibration; Conceptual Obstacles To Calibration; The Effects Of Calibration Training; Notes; Chapter 6 Quantifying Risk Through Modeling; How Not To Quantify Risk; Real Risk Analysis: The Monte Carlo; An Example Of The Monte Carlo Method And Risk; Tools And Other Resources For Monte Carlo Simulations. The Risk Paradox And The Need For Better Risk Analysisnotes; Chapter 7 Quantifying The Value Of Information; The Chance Of Being Wrong And The Cost Of Being Wrong: Expected Opportunity Loss; The Value Of Information For Ranges; Beyond Yes/no: Decisions On A Continuum; The Imperfect World: The Value Of Partial Uncertainty Reduction; Perishable Information Values; Information Values For Multiple Variables; The Epiphany Equation: How The Value Of Information Changes Everything; Summarizing Uncertainty, Risk, And Information Value: The Pre-measurements; Notes; Part Iii Measurement Methods. Chapter 8 The Transition: From What To Measure To How To Measure. Douglas W. Hubbard. Includes Bibliographical References And Index.

Now updated with new measurement methods and new examples, How to Measure Anything shows managers how to inform themselves in order to make less risky, more profitable business decisions This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business, government agency or other organization that, until now, you may have considered "immeasurable," including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI.
Adds new measurement methods, showing how they can be applied to a variety of areas such as risk management and customer satisfaction Simplifies overall content while still making the more technical applications available to those readers who want to dig deeper Continues to boldly assert that any perception of "immeasurability" is based on certain popular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methods Shows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, and sets out to correct those ideas Offers practical methods for measuring a variety of "intangibles" Provides an online database (www.howtomeasureanything.com) of downloadable, practical examples worked out in detailed spreadsheets Written by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard—creator of Applied Information Economics— How to Measure Anything, Third Edition illustrates how the author has used his approach across various industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven methods.

"From market research to information technology to financial reporting, How to Measure Anything reveals the power of measurement to our understanding of business and the world at large. This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business that, until now, you may have considered 'immeasurable, ' including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI. With examples ranging from how a marine biologist measures the population of fish in a large lake to how the United States Marine Corps found out what really matters in forecasting fuel requirements for the battlefield, you will discover a 'universal approach' to measuring 'intangibles, ' along with some interesting methods for particular problems. Here, you will learn about: the Illusion of Intangibles: why immeasurables aren't; calibrated estimates: how much do you know now?; measuring risk: introduction to the Monte Carlo; sampling reality: how observing some things tells us about all; unconventional measurement instruments such as the internet, human judges, prediction markets, and more; measuring the value of information: what's it worth to measure?"--Publisher description

2015-01-13