On 1 July 1997 The Red Flag With Five Yellow Stars Of The People's Republic Of China Will Be Hoisted Over Government House In Hong Kong, Replacing The Union Jack And Symbolizing The Culmination Of A Profound Political Transition. The United Kingdom, Which Has Governed The Colony Since 1841, Will Have Transferred Sovereignty And Administrative Responsibility Over Hong Kong To Mainland China's Communist Party. Hong Kong Is In For A Rocky Road In The Years Ahead. Future Treatment Of Hong Kong Will Be Caught Up In The Political Competition For Control Of China. Victims Of That Competition Will Include The Free Press, Academic Freedom, Open And Fair Elections, And Some Portion Of Market Freedom. Hong Kong Will Not Be As Tightly Controlled As The Rest Of China, But Neither Will It Be The Free And Vivacious Place It Has Been For The Past Half Century. The Political And Economic Landscape Will Be Filled With Uncertainty, Cronyism, Lost Freedoms, And More Corruption Than Has Been Known In The Recent Past. It Is A Bleak Picture Indeed. Such Is The Dire Prophecy Of Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, David Newman, And Alvin Rabushka, Whose Red Flag Over Hong Kong Casts A Cold Eye On The Future Prospects Of The World's Best Example Of The Free-market Economy, Working As Textbooks Say It Should. Applying To That Unknown Future A Dynamic Model Of Decision Making That Rests On The Collection Of Data From A Wide Range Of Expert Observers, The Authors Boldly Seek To Quantify Human Behavior And So Derive A Precise And Reliable Early Forecast Of Hong Kong's Destiny At The Hands Of Its Communist Masters. 1. To Go Or Stay? -- 2. An Overview Of Hong Kong -- 3. The Sweet And Sour Of China -- 4. Words Have Meaning -- Or Do They? -- 5. China After Deng -- 6. The Future Of Hong Kong -- 7. Fortune Cookies -- App. A. Joint Declaration Of The Government Of The United Kingdom Of Great Britain And Northern Ireland And The Government Of The People's Republic Of China On The Question Of Hong Kong -- App. B. The Forecasting Model And Its Track Record. Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, David Newman, Alvin Rabushka. Includes Bibliographical References (p. 187-189) And Index.

Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, 1946-; Newman, David, 1956 October 25-; Rabushka, Alvin

Bruce Bueno De Mesquita, David Newman, Alvin Rabushka

Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House Publishers

Chatham House Publishers, Incorporated

CQ Press

United States, United States of America

Chatham, N.J, New Jersey, 1996

Chatham, N.J, c1996

Includes bibliographical references (p. 187-189) and index.

Lucid and compelling, this is an essential guide to the turbulent future of Hong Kong. The authors begin with a concise historical overview, tracing how Hong Kong with its unique geographical setting, "textbook" freemarket economy, and industrious population, developed into one of the worlds richest territories. Based on their own expertise in policy choices and a collection of data from a wide range of expert observers, the authors applied a scientific model of decision making to Hong Kongs unknown future.

A guide to the turbulent future of Hong Kong. It begins with a concise historical overview, tracing how Hong Kong with its unique geographical setting, "textbook" free market economy, and industrious population, developed into one of the world's richest territories.

This is a handbook about the future of Hong Kong, and since events in China will determine Hong Kong's future, it is also a guide to the future of China. The authors of this book predict that Hong Kong's bright past will give way to a cloudy and uncertain future.

xi, 196 p. : 24 cm
Includes bibliographical references (p. 187-189) and index

2023-06-28